Opinion: Predicting The Winners At The 96th Academy Awards

This Sunday marks the 96th Academy Awards which means it is time to predict who will win in all the major categories. There are a few close races so let’s take a look at who the probable winners will be. Check back on Monday when this article will be updated with the winners.

Best Live Action Short-The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

I have now been burned two times in a row by overthinking in the shorts categories. In 2022, I picked Robin Robin to win Best Animated Short because of the Netflix branding when The Windshield Washer was the better movie and I was wrong. The next year I went with Ice Merchants because it was clearly the best short only for the Apple-produced The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse to win so naturally we careen back in the other direction again and pick Netflix’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. I also really want to see Wes Anderson take home an Oscar considering this is now his 8th nomination which could play into that.

Best Animated Short-WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

This is the toughest category to call because of the inability to watch four of the five nominees on streaming (especially with AMC not holding the annual shorts festival to watch all five in the theater this year locally) but I’m going to go with WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko because recognizability tends to lead to wins in these categories (see the above explanation about why I picked The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar).

Best Documentary Short-The ABCs of Book Banning

This one feels the easiest of the shorts categories since The ABCs of Book Banning is concise, impactful, bookended nicely, and makes what the object of the documentary is. This category has the easiest path to view all the nominees since The ABCs of Book Banning is on Paramount+ as an MTV documentary, The Last Repair Shop and Nai Nai and Wai Po are both on Disney+, and Island In Between and The Barber of Little Rock are available for free on YouTube.

Best Original Song-I’m Just Ken (Barbie)

I’ve said it before, this category always feels weird to me because I feel that an original song for a movie is something that is actually in the movie and not a pop song written for credits (see Olivia Rodrigo’s song for The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes). This was also the category that made me realize that Flamin’ Hot got a theatrical release and was not just dumped out on streaming. That said, this is going to come down to either I’m Just Ken or What Was I Made For?, both of which are from Barbie. I think I’m Just Ken edges out because it managed to stay in the cultural zeitgeist longer than it arguably should have. And while we are on the topic of this category feeling just a little bit off in general, why was no song from Wonka nominated?

Best Original Score-Oppenheimer

The biggest indictment of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is that it was scored by John Williams and I did not realize it while I was watching. Oppenheimer should win because that score is beautifully haunting and fits into the film perfectly. Poor Things also had a solid score but this year should be Ludwig Göransson’s year.

Best Costuming-Poor Things

For me personally, I prefer when this award goes to a movie that designs something we haven’t seen before. Oppenheimer, Napoleon, and Killers of the Flower Moon all do a great job recreating costumes that already existed, and to an extent, Barbie does something similar by making life-size recreations of outfits that existed in toy form for decades. Poor Things should win this category because the costumes are unique, they stand out in the movie, and are integral to the story. That said, this was also the category that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 should have angled for if it wanted to win an award in a technical category. It still wouldn’t have but it would have been closer than in the visual effects category.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling-Poor Things

Similar rationale as Best Costuming, namely that the makeup is integral to the story and stands out, especially among the competition. There is a chance that Society of the Snow wins in this category considering the movie’s visual aesthetic but this should be solidly Poor Things’ category.

Best Visual Effects-Godzilla Minus One

Realistically this award could go to either Godzilla Minus One or The Creator for the same reason: the visuals look astounding on a minimal budget, similar to the 88th awards when Ex Machina won over Mad Max: Fury Road. That said, Godzilla Minus One’s budget was lower and the effects looked on par with some of the $200 million monster movies produced by Legendary. It also has the recency bias factor considering it dropped in the west within the last few months and the effects exist within a better movie than The Creator.

Best Sound-Oppenheimer

Again I’m going to use this opportunity to say Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing should not have been consolidated into one category considering they are two very different skill sets. Oppenheimer will likely take this home because of the way it uses sound during its most pivotal scenes, including the one where Oppenheimer is giving the speech after the bombs are dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

Best Production Design-Barbie

This race comes down to Barbie and Poor Things but I think that if Poor Things has the night I think it will, the Production Design award is going to Barbie. Let’s be real for a second, the physical sets of Barbieland used so much pink paint, that they caused a global shortage. That level of commitment alone deserves this award.

Best Editing-Oppenheimer

This race comes down to Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Anatomy of a Fall and really including Poor Things feels generous. Despite how kinetic the “action” of the courtroom scenes in Anatomy of a Fall seems, Oppenheimer’s interweaving of multiple timelines is arguably its biggest strength which will probably win it this category.

Best Cinematography-Poor Things

Yorgos Lanthimos and Robbie Ryan use their fisheye lens like a film student who just got a piece of new equipment and needs to justify the purchase (I know from whence I speak). That’s not a derogatory statement and it looks great for establishing the look and feel of the film so their work definitely deserves recognition here.

Best Adapted Screenplay-Poor Things

This is probably the toughest category to predict because if any of these films take home the award it would not be surprising. Oppenheimer and Poor Things have the best scripts in this category, however, Poor Things feels more unique and I feel like the fact that Oppenheimer was written in the first person could be considered pretentious by voters.

Best Original Screenplay-Past Lives

You would probably not be wise to pick Past Lives like I did but it was my favorite movie from 2023 and the script is fantastic. I do see a narrow path forward where it could win because this is the only category it was nominated in besides Best Picture and maybe voters will want to vote for it because of that. The more likely winner is Anatomy of a Fall but I’m sticking with Past Lives.

Best Animated Feature-Nimona

Again, like Best Original Screenplay, I don’t think Nimona is in serious contention for this category because it is going to come down to The Boy and the Heron or Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. That said, Nimona was hands down the best animated movie of 2023 and deserves to be recognized as such. If you want to win your Oscar ballot, you’re better off selecting Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Best International Feature-The Zone of Interest

Politics play a role in The Zone of Interest taking home this award but not in the expected way. Anatomy of a Fall should have been nominated in this category, however because Justine Triet was critical of French Prime Minister Pierre Macron during her speech at the Cannes Film Festival, the film was not submitted for consideration in this category. This narrows the race by a substantial margin because, as I’ve said the last few years, if a movie is nominated for Best Picture and also the “Best (Genre) Feature '' categories, it’s basically a lock for the genre it’s nominated for. Had Anatomy of a Fall been nominated here as well, this would have been a closer race.

Best Documentary Feature-20 Days in Mariupol

Navalny won last year despite the fact that it was not the best documentary in 2022 (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was). I feel like the pro-Ukrainian/anti-Russian sentiment will carry over and give the award to a documentary that chronicles life during the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. As a supporter of public television, it will be nice to see a documentary produced by PBS win an Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor-Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

As we move into the acting categories, let’s just get the easiest out of the way first. I have never been so certain about anything as much as I am that Robert Downey Jr. will bring home this award. On top of a career-best performance, there is the narrative going into the ceremony that will carry him through, similar to Jamie Lee Curtis last year.

Best Supporting Actress-Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

This category was a little more open before the SAG Awards, however now that she has taken home the equivalent award there it does kind of lockdown this category in a major way. If there is a close second in this category, it is Jodie Foster for Nyad but it seems Da’Vine Joy Randolph will definitely win this category.

Best Leading Actor-Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Yet another example of a category with a clear-cut winner, Cillian Murphy will likely win Best Leading Actor. Paul Giamatti could possibly make an outside run at the award but since Zac Efron was snubbed for his work in The Iron Claw, this is pretty easily Cillian Murphy’s category.

Best Leading Actress-Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

This was probably the most interesting race out of all the awards because this was a contest between Emma Stone for Poor Things and Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon. The SAG Awards kept the race competitive because Gladstone won the equivalent award there. In a toss-up race like this, I feel like Lily Gladstone wins because this performance was one her first mainstream roles while Emma Stone has already gotten a lot of acclaim from past films like La La Land and The Favourite.

Best Director-Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

It feels weird to say but this will be Nolan’s first Oscar win should he pull it off. The category is stacked with nominations also going to Yorgos Lanthimos, Martin Scorsese, Justine Triet, and Jonathan Glazer, all of whom have fantastic directorial outings this year. Oppenheimer is just an expertly crafted movie with outstanding acting performances from the entire cast.

Best Picture-Oppenheimer

As with the above category, Oppenheimer is just a masterfully made film so it will rightfully win Best Picture. Based on the other nominees, I don’t feel an upset is likely, even if American Fiction, Past Lives, and Anatomy of a Fall are among some of the best films to come out last year.